Energy transition understanding limited: Surveys

It’s been 36 years since Graham Richardson, the then Minister for the Arts, Sport, the Environment, Tourism and Territories proposed a 20 per cent reduction in 1988 Australian greenhouse gas emissions levels by 2005. Since then, there has been a range of policies and laws aimed at addressing climate change in Australia, with the Federal Government agreeing to a commitment to reduce emissions by 43 per cent by 2030 (compared to 2005) and net zero emissions by 2050. Despite more than three decades of climate action in Australia and policies taking centre stage in the political arena over the last decade, a recent report by Ipsos has found confusion and hesitation towards the transition is common among voters.

Communication not cutting through

Some of the findings from the Ipsos 2024 Climate Change report may come as a surprise given the level of coverage given to climate change and the associated energy transition away from traditional generators. One of the key findings of the report is that most Australian’s are not aware the energy transition is currently underway, with 65 per cent of respondents thinking Australia has no plans to transition to net zero (29 per cent) or that the transition is yet to start (36 per cent, see figure 1).  

While surprising this lack of understanding is consistent throughout the report. For example, 40 per cent of respondents don’t think they know what actions are being taken to meet Australia’s net zero commitments and just under two thirds of respondents are confident they understand the cause and impacts of climate change. Additionally, 51 per cent believe there are too many conflicting opinions for the public to be confident about claims made about climate change, with it potentially hampering meaningful progress and community support on actions being taken.  

Figure 1: How do you think Australia’s net zero transition is progressing

Source: 2024 Climate Change Report, Ipsos

These findings have also translated into a lack of understanding when it comes to the technologies which will enable Australia to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Understanding of batteries and transmission lines is particularly low, with only 27 per cent and 25 per cent of respondents understanding the technology, which is concerning considering these technologies will be key to ensuring network reliability. Conversely, solar farms, wind farms and coal-fired stations are the most well understood technologies, with more than two-fifths of respondents understanding how each technology works somewhat well (figure 2). Only 34 per cent of respondents said they understood nuclear technology somewhat well, which interestingly, is similar to the percentage of respondents in the July Mood of the Nation report by SEC Newgate who said they would support this technology.

Figure 2: Understanding of energy technology

Source: 2024 Climate Change Report, Ipsos

Unsurprisingly, misinformation continues to be a problem when it comes to climate change, emissions, and the transition, with a large portion of the population being suspect to believing it. The report found 68 per cent of respondents said the statement “Transitioning to renewable energy will lead to an increase in household energy prices” is believable, while 49 per cent said the statement “there is no consensus among scientists about the effects of climate change” is also believable. “Building more renewable energy generation will lead to more blackouts and brownouts”, “offshore wind farms cause harm to whales”, and “building more solar and wind farms is taking away our best agricultural land” are all believable statements according to 50 per cent of the respondents.

However, combating this misinformation will be difficult. Only 32 per cent of respondents trust information about climate change from energy utility companies, and only 16 per cent believe climate change information from politicians. This distrust also is seen with government departments, with only 43 per cent believing the information coming from Federal environmental departments. Thankfully, trust in scientists is exceedingly high, with 67 per cent believing information coming from them, and only seven per cent have no, or little trust in them. Whilst the trust is slightly lower, universities and academics also fare very well, with only 17 per cent having no or little trust in them, and54 per cent have a little or a great deal of trust. The Bureau of Meteorology, emergency services and the CSIRO are the most trusted organisations with information regarding climate change, whilst energy utilities and mining companies are the least trusted.

Community perceptions

The latest SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation report shows cost of living continues to be a major concern with voters with 75 per cent of respondents saying cost of living is the most important issue to them, and 77 per cent also highlighting electricity bills as a specific cost of living concern, although this is down three per cent from April. Another 55 per cent said they were concerned about their gas bills, which has seen no noticeable change since the previous report.

As residents await the Federal Government’s $300 energy bill relief, 45 per cent of respondents said they have used less heating or colling in their home than usual as a result of cost-of-living pressures, which is concerning considering the cold winter Australia has seen this year. Additionally, the rising cost of electricity is seen as the number one factor contributing to cost-of-living pressures -94 per cent said it was a contributor (large, medium or small) and 76 per cent said it was a medium or large factor.

Encouragingly, for the first time in two years, we have seen an increase in positivity towards the renewable transition (59 per cent up from 53 per cent) and a decrease in those who feel negative about it (down five per cent). There has also been a considerable jump in those who feel positive about the transition, up 8 per cent to 27 per cent. This community sentiment was consistent with the Ipsos polling, which saw 59 per cent of Australians somewhat or strongly supported the transition away from renewables. SEC Newgate found young people, aged between 18 and 34, were more likely to support the transition compared to those aged 50 and above (65 per cent compared to 54 per cent), however Ipsos saw support among aged groups (Gen Z, Millenials, Gen X and Baby Boomers) was consistent, with only a four per cent difference in support among Gen Z compared to Baby Boomers. Ipsos also saw consistent support among women and men, while SEC Newgate found women were more likely to be supporting of the transition.

Figure 3: Feelings towards Australia’s transition to renewables

Source: Mood of the Nation, July, SEC Newgate

Ipsos has seen a noticeable jump in concern over the negative impact of the transition. Since 2022, cost of living concerns about the transition have risen ten per cent, concerns about the affordability of energy bills has increased seven per cent while concerns about the reliability of energy supply has risen 11 per cent.

Figure 4: Negative perceptions about Australia energy transition

Source: 2024 Climate Change Report, Ipsos

Support for generation

Support remains consistently high for solar and strong for hydro, renewable gas and waste-to-energy projects. Concerningly for the Federal Coalition, support for nuclear energy has dipped since April, with 37 per cent supporting it and 39 per cent opposing it. Among voters, there is a clear preference for building large scale wind and solar farms with new transmission lines instead of nuclear power plants that use existing transmission infrastructure. Coalition voters are the exception with a slight majority of them favouring the nuclear option, however 35 per cent of SEC Newgate respondents said the Coalition’s nuclear policy makes them less likely to vote for them with only 25 per cent saying the policy makes them more likely to vote for the Coalition. Surprisingly, only 29 per cent of those aged 18-34 have said they are less likely to vote for the Coalition, which is 11 per cent lower than the 40 per cent of 50+ who said it would make them less likely to.

As mentioned above, communication continues to be an issue. 41 per cent of SEC Newgate respondents said they don’t support nuclear either because it’s too dangerous, because of historical disasters, or because of safety concerns. Another 12 per cent said they don’t support it because they don’t know enough about it.

Conclusion

The challenge facing stakeholders affected by the renewable transition will be cutting through to the average voter. Both Ipsos and SEC Newgate have found a large portion of Australians are either unaware about energy technology, energy policy, or reasons why we need to transition our energy grid to renewables. With energy utility companies, mining companies, politicians and government not being seen as trustworthy among voters, it is more crucial than ever for scientific organisations like the CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, and universities and academics to work with the industry to educate voters about the issue facing us and how we navigate to a net zero future, which will hopefully improve public perceptions for new generation and new energy policy.